tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35248477.post2927519593707332943..comments2024-03-27T14:20:05.905-04:00Comments on Montclair SocioBlog: Superbowl 2010 – The Wisdom of Crowds vs. The Smart MoneyJay Livingstonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06652075579940313964noreply@blogger.comBlogger4125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35248477.post-2945297719951077112010-02-08T17:47:03.097-05:002010-02-08T17:47:03.097-05:00Way to go, Todd. But even though the Colts lost, ...Way to go, Todd. But even though the Colts lost, and even though my contrarian hunches paid off, Manning is still very impressive. As for the underdogs, if you had bet every underdog in every game this season, you'd have gone almost exactly 50-50.Jay Livingstonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06652075579940313964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35248477.post-61003011544071752142010-02-08T16:12:28.200-05:002010-02-08T16:12:28.200-05:00"If you’ve read this far, you probably know t..."If you’ve read this far, you probably know the outcome. The Saints won 31-17. The crowd was wrong on the point spread and on the under/over."<br /><br />I can't remember who it was that said it (perhaps that great sage, Dr. Johnny Fever), but "the logical man always goes with the underdog," or something to that effect.<br /><br />I made out quite nicely on last night's game, thank you very much. And watching all of the "Manning is the greatest of ALL TIME!" acolytes cry in their beer only made it all the more sweet.Todd Krohnhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11084278810218034057noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35248477.post-13460806694004394312010-02-07T15:53:28.779-05:002010-02-07T15:53:28.779-05:00The nice thing about the contrarian strategy is th...The nice thing about the contrarian strategy is that you get the additional half point or more. Where the money has really been coming in on today's game is the Over. The Over/Under line opened at 55.5, is now 57 or 57.5 and may be 58 by game time. Which means, if you're a contrarian, that you should bet the under. The trouble with that is that if you watch the game, you sit there rooting for nothing to happen. <br /><br />The most popular "prop" bet is the coin toss, probably because the vig is so low (0 to 5%), with most of the action on heads. I'm not sure where the smart money is on this one.Jay Livingstonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06652075579940313964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35248477.post-56898057738284637552010-02-07T13:17:36.281-05:002010-02-07T13:17:36.281-05:00Speaking of the wisdom of the street, I have a fri...Speaking of the wisdom of the street, I have a friend who read everything he could about an upcoming game... formed a strong opinion as to who would win based on his reading... and then bet the opposite way. His rationale was that -- if the press swayed people one way -- he would be getting a better betting proposition by going against the crowd, whose sentiments were distorting the odds.brandsingerhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/11684844742391749078noreply@blogger.com