tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35248477.post3166310467226847156..comments2024-03-27T14:20:05.905-04:00Comments on Montclair SocioBlog: Super Bowl Post – Crowds, Birds, HorsesJay Livingstonhttp://www.blogger.com/profile/06652075579940313964noreply@blogger.comBlogger2125tag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35248477.post-55161481055708392762014-02-02T18:19:04.247-05:002014-02-02T18:19:04.247-05:00When the books adjust the line and vig in response...When the books adjust the line and vig in response to the action, that’s risk management. They’re trying to reduce their exposure to a Broncos win. Some bettors do that too by hedging, especially when the line changes and they try to catch a middle or an edge. Imagine someone who thought the Broncos would win and bet $10,000 at the opening pick ’em line. He might well hedge back a chunk of that with a bet on the Seahawks +2½. Risk management (not to mention the 2-point middle).<br /><br />What I’m talking about is a system where you always bet against the public (which usually means a line move in your favor). You won’t win them all, but if the theory is right, you’ll make money over the course of the season. That’s what Damon Runyon and the law of large numbers have in mind. Jay Livingstonhttps://www.blogger.com/profile/06652075579940313964noreply@blogger.comtag:blogger.com,1999:blog-35248477.post-64728995949918174282014-02-02T17:05:55.037-05:002014-02-02T17:05:55.037-05:00This is not a question of wisdom of the crowds but...This is not a question of wisdom of the crowds but of risk management by the bookies. N=1 and all that.Anonymousnoreply@blogger.com