January 4, 2015
Posted by Jay Livingston
Several posts in this blog have looked at the “wisdom of crowds” in football betting. In brief, the wisdom of crowds idea asserts that the collective opinions of the many are more accurate than the opinions of a few experts. (For a fuller explanation, see this post from 2009.)
Today’s playoff game between the Bengals and the Colts provides an example. The crowd loves Indianapolis. Two-thirds of bets have been coming in on the Colts, who opened as 4-point favorites. Nevertheless, early in the week, the line went down to 3 ½. Apparently, the bettors who the bookies most respected, were taking the Bengals, even though the Bengals' star receiver, A. J. Green will not be playing.
Today, the public has continued to bet the Colts, with the result that some books have raised the line back to 4.
The smart money is still on the Bengals. But if you believe in the Wisdom of Crowds, you should be on the Colts.
UPDATE: The smart money wasn’t. The crowd was wise. The Colts easily beat the Bengals 26-10.
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