SocioBlog - the Book?

March 30, 2008
Posted by Jay Livingston

Stuff White People Like opened shop on January 18th of this year. On March 20th, it had a book contract for a reported $300,000.

The story in today’s Times uses words like “shock” and “outcry” (why not “awe”?) to describe the reaction in the publication biz and perhaps in blogland. One book person quoted notes, correctly, that Martin Mull did this decades ago with “The History of White People in America.”

But that’s like complaining that someone has already written a book about French cooking or a biography of Lincoln. The accusation of non-originality is a thin veneer and doesn’t do much to hide the underlying envy. (No envy here at the SocioBlog, of course. Those 19.3 million hits, and counting, at Stuff White are meaningless ephemera.)

Now we can add blogosphere to the non-literary worlds – movies, TV, sports, politics – that have long provided paths to the best seller lists. On the Times non-fiction list today, a third of the titles are by “writers” who are, as they say at the Oscars, adapted from another medium – wordsmiths like Newt Gingrich and Nikki Sixx. At the top of the list is that literary lioness Valerie Bertinelli, whose Losing It “focuses on depression and her effort to lose weight.” The publisher is Free Press, a familiar trademark for sociologists. Nice to know that Valerie is hanging out in the editorial offices with Talcott Parsons and the Becker boys (Ernest and Howard), among others.

Celebrity seems to have become a kind of universal currency. If you have enough of it, you can circulate among elites and move from the high level of one world to a high level in another. Celebrity politicians become best-selling authors; celebrity body-builders become actors and then governors; celebrity real estate developers become TV stars; celebrity call girls become million-download singers. And now celebrity bloggers.

But where are the celebrity sociologists?

Every Crime, Every Month

March 27, 2008
Posted by Jay Livingston

The comedian Robert Klein used to do a spoof of those late-night TV ads: “Now you can get every record ever recorded. . . .” Well, now you can get every crime ever recorded. Almost.

The FBI’s Uniform Crime Reports, for all its flaws, is still an important source of data on crime in the US. And for anything prior to 1973, it’s pretty much the only source.

Now Michael Maltz has created a file with data on serious crime (the “Index offenses”), month by month from 1960 to 2004, for each police department. If your police department is one of the 17,000 you can track their crime statistics.

Remember when someone broke into your car and stole the radio back in October of 1986, and when you reported it to the police you weren’t sure if they were taking you seriously, maybe because the desk sergeant said, “So? What do you want me to do about it?”* Well, you can check to see if your victimization made it into the larceny stats that month.

You can download the zip file here (it’s about 150Mb). Unzip it and you get an Excel file for each state. It took me a couple of minutes to find the manual hidden among these. It’s a Word file (“Using . . .”).

Good luck, crimheads.

*This actually happened to a friend of mine and in my precinct, though I have disguised the year and month.

Hat tip to Andrew Gelman.

Working for Peanuts

March 26, 2008
Posted by Jay Livingston

One of the books my good liberal parents gave me when I was a kid was a biography of George Washington Carver. I think the subtitle was “381 Uses for the Peanut.” I could be wrong about that number, but I’m sure it didn’t include this.

For the full story, go here.

Hat tip to The Soc Shrine, which claims that the pseudocrack is also known as Carver’s Revenge. But neither that term nor any of the other street names listed by SocShrine turns up at Urban Dictionary, at least not yet.

Sociolinguists may want to keep an ear out for this one.

Justice Scalia Does the Math

March 25, 2008
Posted by Jay Livingston

Supreme Court Justice Antonin Scalia. Even those who disagree with him speak of his brilliance, his incisive intelligence, and his wit. Apparently, he does better on the verbal part than on the math. An article by Adam Liptak in the New York Times today nails it. In an opinion upholding a death penalty conviction, Scalia dismisses the problem of wrongful convictions because they constitute such a minuscule fraction of cases. For support, he cites the number: “Between 1989 and 2003, the authors identify 340 ‘exonerations’ nationwide—not just for capital cases, mind you, nor even just for murder convictions, but for various felonies.” (Note that Scalia puts exonerations in quotation marks. He still thinks the dudes are guilty.) Then he quotes approvingly from a prosecutor.

[L]et’s give the professor the benefit of the doubt: let’s assume that he understated the number of innocents by roughly a factor of 10, that of 340 there were 4,000 people in prison who weren’t involved in the crime in any way. During that same 15 years, there were more than 15 million felony convictions across the country. That would make the error rate .027 percent—or, to put it another way, a success rate of 99.973 percent.

Most students in the undergraduate methods course could tell you what’s wrong with this fraction. Exonerations are rare because they require extraordinary legal effort, efforts that prosecutors and often judges strongly resist. Claims of innocence in any but the most serious cases don’t get that kind of effort. And most of those 15 million felony convictions are not for the more serious degrees of murder and rape. So the 4,000 in the numerator of the fraction is almost certainly a severe undercount of all wrongful convictions. For the denominator, however, Scalia takes all felony convictions in the US. He’s using either a wrong numerator or a wrong denominator, or both. For an analogy, Liptak quotes Samuel Gross in a forthcoming article in Annual Review of Law and Social Science:

By this logic we could estimate the proportion of baseball players who’ve used steroids by dividing the number of major league players who’ve been caught by the total of all baseball players at all levels: major league, minor leagues, semipro, college, and little league – and maybe throwing in football and basketball players as well.

I’ll try to remember this example the next time I teach about stat and methods. Or courts. Or the next time I read about Scalia’s incisive intelligence.